PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Jun 6, 2027
Creator

Will the Labor Party (PT) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?

Probability

1h

+0.1pp

24h

-20.9pp

24h Vol

$255.84

Liquidity

$25.8K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 6, 2027
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
3¢
May 16, 2026, 01:00 UTCMay 17, 2026, 04:25 UTC
updated 04:25:41 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-17T04-25Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 21pp over 24h

    Now 3¢; +0.1pp in the last hour.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability recovers above 8¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 6, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 9235.6h

    LOW

Price movement

-20.9pp over the last 24h, now 3¢.

updated 04:25:41 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

updated 04:25:41 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventMexico Legislative Election Winner
Category · Politics

Market Description

A legislative election is scheduled to be held in Mexico on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies (Cámara de Diputados) as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes in this election. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Mexican Government, specifically the National Electoral Institute (https://ine.mx/).

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Politics

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

election

Reason

Question text contains the high-signal keyword "election" — matched the Politics rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will the Labor Party (PT) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?"?

As of Sun, 17 May 2026 04:25:41 GMT, YES is priced at 3% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -20.9pp in the last 24 hours, +0.1pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 6, 2027 (2027-06-06T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$255.84 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $255.84. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $25.8K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 3.3¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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