Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?
Probability
13¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+3.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$37.46
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Nov 3, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (22.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
-3.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 3pp over 24h
Now 13¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 22.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Nov 3, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (22.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 4377.5h
- 14:32SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+3.0pp over the last 24h, now 13¢.
Biggest hourly move: -8.0pp at 3d ago (to 9¢).
Show top 8 of 40 hourly moves
- 03:00 · +6.5pp → 15¢
- 17:00 · -6.0pp → 10¢
- 3d ago · -7.5pp → 9¢
- 3d ago · -7.5pp → 9¢
- 3d ago · -6.5pp → 9¢
- 3d ago · -8.0pp → 9¢
- 3d ago · -5.5pp → 11¢
- 3d ago · -5.5pp → 11¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
Missouri voters are scheduled to vote in the November 3, 2026 midterm elections on a constitutional amendment (Amendment 3) which, if passed, would repeal the constitutional right to reproductive freedom, prohibit most abortions, and prohibit gender transition surgeries for minors. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Missouri Amendment 3, the Prohibit Abortion and Gender Transition Procedures for Minors Amendment, passes according to Missouri election procedure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Amendment 3 is removed from the 2026 midterm election ballot in Missouri, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If, for any reason, the results of this vote are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results reported by the state of Missouri, specifically the Missouri Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mo.gov).
Alerts
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