Will there be exactly 5 major space weather events this week?

• 1

  Down 33pp over 24h

  Now 13¢; -11.5pp in the last hour.

• 2

  Resolution-risk signal firing

  Expires in 143h with open resolution ambiguity.

• 3

  Wide spread — 15.0¢

  Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

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This market will resolve according to the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater which occur between April 26, 2026, 12:00AM ET and May 2, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation This market may not resolve until the end of the relevant timeframe. This market will resolve according to the final number of qualifying events at the end of this market's timeframe to allow for revisions to the data. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe. If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center in the "ALERTS, WATCHES AND WARNINGS" table located under the heading titled "Current Space Weather Conditions" at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.