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PoliticsExpires Dec 31, 2026

Will Trump cut corporate taxes before 2027?

Probability

20¢

1h

+0.5pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$12.00

Liquidity

$7.1K

Probability (last 7 days)

-1.0pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 18:00Apr 25, 2026, 15:08
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 5985h with open resolution ambiguity.

  2. 2

    Wide spread — 12.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 5984.9h

    LOW
  • 15:08Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 5985h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 09:00Price

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 22¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.0pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.0pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.5pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 7.0pp

    to 18¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 8.5pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 7.5pp

    to 18¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.5pp

    to 16¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump, as President of the United States, signs into law a bill that lowers the corporate tax rate in the United States below 21% at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Note that the cut does not need to go into effect before the resolution date - it just needs to be signed into law by then. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Binary
  • No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
  • Wide spread (12.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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