Will Trump cut corporate taxes before 2027?
Probability
20¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$12.00
Liquidity
$7.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
-1.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5985h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 12.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5984.9h
- 15:08SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5985h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 22¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 18¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 18¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 16¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump, as President of the United States, signs into law a bill that lowers the corporate tax rate in the United States below 21% at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Note that the cut does not need to go into effect before the resolution date - it just needs to be signed into law by then. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (12.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).