Warlike-Anklet
0x87b723fb21603b5cad440191f67d9d322e61f533
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
31
Open notional
$906.70
Total PnL
$-741.55
Realised
$-48.14
Win rate
17%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 31- NO
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
1207 shares @ 34.3¢·now 21.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$259.60
$-154.40
- NO
Will Trump cut corporate taxes before 2027?
258 shares @ 85.6¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$246.22
$25.47
- NO
Will Jared Moskowitz be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?
101 shares @ 44.9¢·now 99.8¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$100.75
$55.41
- NO
Will Finland recognize Palestine before 2027?
115 shares @ 83.7¢·now 87.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$100.33
$3.83
- YES
Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?
113 shares @ 54.4¢·now 44.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$49.72
$-11.76
- YES
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?
113 shares @ 49.0¢·now 41.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$46.89
$-8.49
- NO
US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?
24 shares @ 74.7¢·now 84.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$20.28
$2.34
- YES
Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?
50 shares @ 30.9¢·now 34.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$17.24
$1.80
- NO
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
27 shares @ 44.0¢·now 61.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$16.67
$4.79
- YES
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?
52 shares @ 4.8¢·now 27.6¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$14.35
$11.85
Recent activity
- REDEEMSCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day?$600.00Jun 29, 23:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$46.00Jun 26, 04:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?$90.00Jun 24, 05:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the June Meeting?$99.76Jun 16, 07:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Lindy Ruff win the 2025–2026 NHL Jack Adams Award?$95.13Jun 3, 22:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill David Njoku play for Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2026-27?$116.96Jun 3, 13:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill David Njoku play for Jacksonville Jaguars in 2026-27?$131.04Jun 3, 13:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill David Njoku play for Los Angeles Chargers in 2026-27?$40.00Jun 3, 10:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill Richard Tabor be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey?$199.00Jun 3, 05:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Pumas UNAM win Liga MX?$10.00May 25, 06:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Valencia be relegated from La Liga after the 2025–26 season?$5.19May 18, 00:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?$64.17May 14, 11:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?$67.88May 14, 11:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?$25.93May 13, 22:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Espanyol be relegated from La Liga after the 2025–26 season?$5.45May 13, 20:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?$18.62May 13, 20:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Espanyol be relegated from La Liga after the 2025–26 season?$24.63May 13, 20:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lazio win Coppa Italia?$1.50May 13, 19:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?$26.48May 13, 17:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?$11.42May 13, 17:32 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
17% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $49.52
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 5, 07:51 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 29, 23:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.