Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni by December 31, 2026?
Probability
77¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
-1.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$273.22
Probability (last 7 days)
+21.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 1pp over 24h
Now 77¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5982h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 34.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5982.1h
- 17:51SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 5982h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+1.0pp over the last 24h, now 78¢.
Biggest hourly move: +45.0pp at 2d ago (to 81¢).
Show all 19 hour-by-hour ticks
- 17:00 · +5.0pp → 82¢
- 16:00 · +4.0pp → 81¢
- 07:00 · -5.0pp → 77¢
- 01:00 · +3.0pp → 81¢
- 22:00 · +3.5pp → 81¢
- 1d ago · +4.0pp → 81¢
- 1d ago · +4.0pp → 81¢
- 1d ago · +3.0pp → 77¢
- 1d ago · +3.5pp → 80¢
- 2d ago · +9.5pp → 77¢
- 2d ago · +17.5pp → 77¢
- 2d ago · +20.5pp → 79¢
- 2d ago · +19.0pp → 79¢
- 2d ago · +21.0pp → 81¢
- 2d ago · +17.5pp → 80¢
- 2d ago · +25.5pp → 79¢
- 2d ago · +37.5pp → 79¢
- 2d ago · +45.0pp → 81¢
- 2d ago · +21.5pp → 77¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (34.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.