Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2026?
Probability
34¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$1.49
Liquidity
$15.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
+4.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5984h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $15.8k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5984.2h
- 15:47SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5984h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 34¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 34¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 34¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 35¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 34¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 34¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 33¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 34¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 33¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 34¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 33¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 32¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 32¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 33¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 33¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between January 1, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).