Will Trump wear a blue tie today?

1. 1

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 6h with open resolution ambiguity.

2. 2

   Wide spread — 38.0¢

   Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

3. 3

   Expiry in 6h

   Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump wears a blue tie at any point on the listed date, 2026, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The color will be determined by the most visually dominant color visible in publicly available photos or videos. For example, for the tie to be considered predominantly blue, its primary color must be a shade of blue, though it may feature other colors as part of a pattern. This tie would count as "Blue": https://i.ytimg.com/vi/20w7J2JAmqw/maxresdefault.jpg The following tie has no distinguishable predominant color, and thus would resolve to "No". https://www.usatoday.com/gcdn/authoring/authoring-images/2025/01/20/USAT/77837111007-xxx-dcmg-105-5190802.jpg If Donald Trump does not wear a tie or if no photos or video are released from the listed date, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.