Will X launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?
Probability
21¢
1h
+1.0pp
24h
+0.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$2.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
-2.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 6014h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 15.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6014.4h
- 14:35SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 6014h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 20¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 20¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 17¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 20¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 20¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 20¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if X launches a stablecoin pegged to the US Dollar by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The stablecoin must be actively transferrable and/or tradable, announcements alone will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from X, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (15.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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