Set 1 Winner: Zheng vs Rybakina

1. 1

   Down 23pp over 24h

   Now 37¢; flat in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 181h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Wide spread — 26.0¢

   Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

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This market refers to the tennis match between Qinwen Zheng and Elena Rybakina in the Madrid Open, originally scheduled for April 26, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to “Zheng” if Qinwen Zheng wins the first set. It will resolve to “Rybakina” if Elena Rybakina wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official WTA match statistics.