Stale-Gazelle
0x016422b186ea9956bcbfd13444108f2f0a803639
Wallet digest
Activity score
48/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
53
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-178.72
Realised
$-5.61
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 53- NO
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?
113 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-2.10
- NO
Will Arsenal FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 23, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?
84 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 6, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will Jensen Huang say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times during NVIDIA keynote?
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 5, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
38 shares @ 7.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Negative GDP growth in Q3 2025?
34 shares @ 58.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 30, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?
20 shares @ 44.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-9.00
- NO
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
18 shares @ 87.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-16.00
- NO
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
17 shares @ 85.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?$0.40Jul 1, 15:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?$0.98Jul 1, 15:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?$1.03Jul 1, 15:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$2.21Jul 1, 15:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?$2.31Jul 1, 15:01 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?$2.48Jul 1, 15:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?$2.57Jul 1, 15:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures?$2.82Jul 1, 15:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$4.24Jul 1, 15:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?$3.10Jul 1, 15:00 UTC
- TRADESELLBillionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?$4.85Jul 1, 15:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$8.77Jul 1, 15:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?$25.18Jul 1, 15:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel annex any territory by June 30?$2.16Jul 1, 14:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$5.07Jul 1, 14:53 UTC
- REDEEMMiguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?$1.30Jul 1, 14:53 UTC
- REDEEMEpstein client list released by June 30?$1.39Jul 1, 14:53 UTC
- REDEEMUkraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026?$2.17Jul 1, 14:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Iranian regime fall by April 30?$2.38Jul 1, 14:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?$2.53Jul 1, 14:53 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
17 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 17
- Avg trade size
- $4.12
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 18, 00:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 1, 15:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.