Noted-Armrest
0x15023e214ecae27bd21649924e9966b22ab6be53
Wallet digest
Activity score
79/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
27
Open notional
$3.1K
Total PnL
$-1.2K
Realised
$277.78
Win rate
60%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 27- YES
Will "AI" be said 15+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?
845 shares @ 30.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$845.00
$591.50
- YES
Will USD.AI launch a token by April 30?
734 shares @ 87.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$734.00
$93.95
- MODENA FC 2018
Spread: US Catanzaro 1929 (-1.5)
633 shares @ 89.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026$633.00
$69.63
- YES
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?
848 shares @ 36.0¢·now 38.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$326.48
$21.20
- NO
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 58% and 59%?
232 shares @ 83.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$232.00
$37.35
- NO
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?
141 shares @ 55.3¢·now 98.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$138.11
$60.08
- NO
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
106 shares @ 57.0¢·now 68.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$72.61
$12.19
- NO
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and 60%?
72 shares @ 86.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$72.00
$9.94
- YES
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?
40 shares @ 16.5¢·now 26.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$10.63
$4.09
- NO
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?
2 shares @ 73.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$1.02
$-0.45
Recent activity
- TRADESELLMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?$16.20Apr 27, 09:40 UTC
- TRADESELLNamed storm forms before hurricane season?$126.54Apr 27, 09:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYNamed storm forms before hurricane season?$231.99Apr 24, 04:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Olivia rank #1 among girl names on the SSA’s official list for 2025?$87.71Apr 21, 08:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?$149.44Apr 21, 03:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?$16.00Apr 21, 03:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?$10.24Apr 21, 03:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill New England Revolution vs. Houston Dynamo end in a draw?$346.80Apr 21, 02:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?$358.63Apr 13, 16:46 UTC
- TRADESELLAndy Jassy out as Amazon CEO before 2027?$302.76Apr 13, 16:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026?$71.04Apr 13, 15:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026?$140.80Apr 13, 15:39 UTC
- TRADESELLOpenAI IPO before 2027?$350.28Apr 13, 09:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill CA Belgrano vs. CA Sarmiento end in a draw?$402.04Apr 13, 09:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill CA Belgrano vs. CA Sarmiento end in a draw?$328.44Apr 13, 09:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYOpenAI IPO before 2027?$418.39Apr 13, 05:58 UTC
- TRADESELLCallum Turner announced as next James Bond?$599.42Apr 13, 05:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30?$9.62Apr 13, 05:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30?$93.60Apr 13, 05:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?$355.74Apr 13, 05:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $258.48
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 12, 03:26 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 27, 09:40 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.