0x19e5e4bd692fea0b868aa1b57ab4bd5a86a0dd71
0x19e5e4bd692fea0b868aa1b57ab4bd5a86a0dd71
Wallet digest
Activity score
92/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
48
Open notional
$3.2K
Total PnL
$-232.76
Realised
$-127.67
Win rate
65%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 48- NO
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?
484 shares @ 92.9¢·now 94.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$455.42
$5.14
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?
336 shares @ 92.7¢·now 89.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$300.28
$-10.87
- NO
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
268 shares @ 95.7¢·now 97.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$261.71
$5.23
- YES
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft?
230 shares @ 89.8¢·now 90.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$207.35
$0.51
- NO
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?
245 shares @ 74.4¢·now 74.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$182.43
$0.19
- NO
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?
186 shares @ 91.5¢·now 92.2¢·exp Oct 21, 2026$171.75
$1.23
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
161 shares @ 96.1¢·now 96.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$155.64
$1.13
- NO
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft?
143 shares @ 92.5¢·now 90.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$129.06
$-3.57
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
132 shares @ 88.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$114.60
$-1.99
- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
141 shares @ 69.3¢·now 71.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$100.56
$3.14
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 23?$24.04Jun 23, 15:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 23?$170.53Jun 23, 15:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 23?$108.47Jun 23, 15:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft?$107.00Jun 23, 14:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17?$1.62Jun 23, 14:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17?$5.20Jun 23, 14:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17?$3.61Jun 23, 14:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17?$12.77Jun 23, 13:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft?$2.38Jun 23, 13:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?$14.26Jun 23, 12:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft?$8.82Jun 23, 12:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?$9.09Jun 23, 12:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$12.86Jun 23, 11:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19?$6.74Jun 23, 11:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$23.28Jun 23, 11:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$2.59Jun 23, 11:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$18.76Jun 23, 11:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$98.80Jun 23, 11:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$2.16Jun 23, 10:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$4.55Jun 23, 10:29 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
37/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
65% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $30.14
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 23, 05:28 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 23, 15:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.