Fresh-Freedom
0x37d2d2e56350cf41fa1f489fd1d999c95ec87847
Wallet digest
Activity score
82/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
11
Open notional
$76.25
Total PnL
$7.68
Realised
$-0.25
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- NO
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026?
20 shares @ 53.0¢·now 97.9¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$19.57
$8.97
- NO
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movie of 2026?
16 shares @ 87.8¢·now 99.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.62
$1.88
- NO
Will Clayton Johnson win The Bachelorette Season 22?
11 shares @ 87.2¢·now 99.5¢·exp Nov 30, 2026$11.40
$1.40
- NO
Rihanna confirmed pregnant in 2026?
8 shares @ 49.5¢·now 68.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.24
$1.42
- NO
Will Doug Mason win The Bachelorette Season 22?
11 shares @ 79.6¢·now 46.7¢·exp Nov 30, 2026$5.05
$-3.56
- NO
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
5 shares @ 91.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$5.00
$0.45
- NO
Will the Republicans win the Colorado Senate race in 2026?
5 shares @ 84.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$4.72
$0.52
- NO
Fannie Mae IPO before 2027?
5 shares @ 78.0¢·now 84.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.22
$0.32
- NO
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
5 shares @ 72.8¢·now 66.1¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$2.98
$-0.30
- YES
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
14 shares @ 32.0¢·now 11.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.59
$-2.83
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Todd Graham be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?$5.00Jul 22, 06:37 UTC
- REDEEMTaylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?$0.00Jul 2, 01:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day?$5.00Jul 1, 07:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$0.00Jul 1, 06:10 UTC
- REDEEMKaty Perry confirmed pregnant by June 30?$0.00Jul 1, 06:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?$5.00Jun 30, 19:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Meituan have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?$0.00Jun 30, 18:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election?$0.00Jun 19, 10:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill any OpenAI GPT model score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Exam?$5.00Jun 13, 06:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?$0.00Jun 12, 18:02 UTC
- REDEEMCounter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2$0.00Jun 7, 16:14 UTC
- REDEEMCounter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2$0.00Jun 7, 15:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2$5.00Jun 7, 12:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2$5.00Jun 7, 12:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Social Democrats (SD) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?$4.74Jun 5, 08:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill New Slovenia – Christian Democrats (NSi) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?$0.00Jun 5, 08:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Slovenian People’s Party (SLS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?$0.00Jun 5, 08:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?$0.00Jun 5, 08:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election$5.00Jun 4, 07:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31?$3.65Jun 1, 07:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
4 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 4
- Avg trade size
- $5.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 28, 16:42 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 06:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.