Circular-Beard
0x39258637aad816d9e22a66da1fca2b6623a1c094
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
113
Open notional
$193.06
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$56.26
Win rate
65%
40 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 113- NO
Will Howard Steven Rance be the Republican nominee for FL-09?
50 shares @ 98.0¢·now 99.9¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$49.92
$0.92
- YES
No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027
76 shares @ 8.0¢·now 34.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$25.72
$19.67
- NO
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
33 shares @ 53.9¢·now 70.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$22.93
$5.38
- NO
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?
47 shares @ 55.0¢·now 34.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$16.34
$-9.72
- NO
Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition?
13 shares @ 99.0¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$13.38
$0.08
- NO
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?
20 shares @ 27.0¢·now 64.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.80
$7.40
- YES
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
20 shares @ 78.0¢·now 57.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$11.50
$-4.10
- YES
Will Elaine Pelino win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election?
13 shares @ 8.0¢·now 65.5¢·exp Sep 8, 2026$8.53
$7.49
- YES
Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?
32 shares @ 54.9¢·now 21.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.72
$-10.84
- NO
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.1m barrels per day in 2026?
41 shares @ 72.0¢·now 15.3¢·exp Feb 28, 2027$6.33
$-23.37
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Joseph Chaplik be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?$21.22Jul 22, 06:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill MrBeast get married by December 31?$31.83Jul 21, 20:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$15.73Jul 3, 00:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill George Forsyth win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$30.80Jul 2, 23:34 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?$30.41Jul 1, 21:29 UTC
- REDEEMJang Dong-hyeok out as PPP Leader by June 30, 2026?$37.31Jul 1, 18:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$5.66Jul 1, 07:54 UTC
- REDEEMJack Lowdon announced as next James Bond?$17.14Jul 1, 07:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Stripe’s market cap be less than $80B at market close on IPO day?$30.86Jul 1, 07:26 UTC
- REDEEMPedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026?$42.16Jul 1, 06:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?$48.25Jul 1, 06:11 UTC
- REDEEM Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$12.00Jul 1, 06:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?$12.67Jul 1, 06:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?$13.82Jun 30, 18:44 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 25, 00:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$57.89Jun 25, 00:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kurt Wedekind win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?$99.36Jun 24, 06:00 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 24, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 23, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 22, 00:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
78/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
65% win rate over 40 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
40 closed markets, 65% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 6, 00:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 06:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 40 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.