0x39f4e4b2484b97fdccb12faecb1a42b01386df6a
0x39f4e4b2484b97fdccb12faecb1a42b01386df6a
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
37
Open notional
$91.60
Total PnL
$-550.80
Realised
$-32.44
Win rate
14%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 37- YES
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?
70 shares @ 59.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$35.36
$-5.95
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
71 shares @ 56.0¢·now 28.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$20.15
$-19.45
- YES
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?
40 shares @ 59.6¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$20.06
$-3.61
- NO
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?
11 shares @ 56.0¢·now 84.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.82
$2.94
- YES
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
9 shares @ 45.6¢·now 38.5¢·exp Jan 3, 2027$3.62
$-0.66
- YES
Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?
4 shares @ 63.0¢·now 68.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$2.72
$0.20
- YES
Consensys IPO closing market cap above $1B?
6 shares @ 59.0¢·now 13.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.87
$-2.93
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - March 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET
402 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-7.30
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7AM ET
306 shares @ 13.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-42.11
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET
232 shares @ 14.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026$0.00
$-33.48
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?$0.00Apr 20, 15:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?$0.00Apr 20, 15:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?$0.01Apr 20, 15:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump endorse Ken Paxton for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?$5.00Apr 6, 03:42 UTC
- TRADESELLDiscord IPO before 2027?$5.03Apr 4, 20:41 UTC
- TRADESELLNew Rihanna Album before GTA VI?$15.47Apr 4, 12:22 UTC
- TRADESELLNew Rihanna Album before GTA VI?$11.39Apr 4, 12:11 UTC
- TRADESELLDiscord IPO before 2027?$11.00Apr 4, 12:10 UTC
- TRADESELLNew Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?$21.87Apr 4, 10:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYNew Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?$44.70Apr 4, 09:42 UTC
- TRADESELLGTA 6 launch postponed again?$20.21Apr 4, 09:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYNew Rihanna Album before GTA VI?$27.91Apr 4, 06:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYDiscord IPO before 2027?$16.58Apr 4, 06:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYGTA 6 launch postponed again?$22.16Apr 4, 05:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?$32.68Apr 4, 05:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?$34.07Apr 4, 04:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?$2.47Apr 4, 04:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?$4.94Apr 4, 04:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?$3.90Apr 4, 04:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? $50.14Apr 4, 04:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
14% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $25.82
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 2, 12:10 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 20, 15:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.