Glorious-Graft
0x45f2027df73fc8be652f4727b1985f8d8c53722e
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
92
Open notional
$2.9K
Total PnL
$-3.2K
Realised
$-14.19
Win rate
4%
69 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 92- NO
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
2719 shares @ 94.4¢·now 95.3¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.6K
$23.11
- YES
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?
135 shares @ 74.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$125.00
$25.00
- NO
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?
208 shares @ 12.0¢·now 16.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$33.33
$8.33
- NO
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?
34 shares @ 87.8¢·now 96.4¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$32.92
$2.92
- YES
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
100 shares @ 72.0¢·now 29.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$29.50
$-42.50
- NO
Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?
21 shares @ 73.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$18.39
$3.39
- NO
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?
14 shares @ 88.0¢·now 96.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.21
$1.21
- YES
LA28 Olympics run as scheduled?
11 shares @ 90.7¢·now 84.5¢·exp Jul 25, 2028$9.31
$-0.69
- NO
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?
28 shares @ 71.0¢·now 29.0¢·exp Sep 18, 2026$8.17
$-11.83
- NO
Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026?
8 shares @ 78.0¢·now 85.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$6.54
$0.54
Recent activity
- REDEEMNothing Ever Happens: July$127.86Aug 1, 14:26 UTC
- REDEEMTotal Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026?$27.09Aug 1, 06:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$22.61Jul 31, 22:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Andrea Pirlo be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team?$233.14Jul 29, 02:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?$117.79Jul 27, 20:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.80T and $0.90T on July 31?$7.84Jul 24, 23:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31?$97.97Jul 24, 23:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$128.59Jul 24, 23:24 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?$52.77Jul 24, 23:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?$100.49Jul 24, 23:23 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by July 27?$117.24Jul 24, 23:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$127.80Jul 24, 23:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?$148.35Jul 24, 23:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 2350 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?$169.26Jul 24, 23:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?$194.23Jul 24, 23:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?$199.36Jul 24, 23:22 UTC
- TRADESELLMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?$200.11Jul 24, 23:22 UTC
- TRADESELLFarsi Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$199.70Jul 24, 23:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$295.32Jul 24, 23:22 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by August 15?$74.51Jul 24, 23:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
51/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
4% win rate over 69 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
69 closed markets, 4% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $96.82
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 24, 12:10 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 1, 14:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 69 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.