Modest-Larva
0x7b5887dcffa32af1ec155a8835c48b4e948aeb2b
Activity score
98/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
11
Open notional
$1.9K
Total PnL
$-62.38
Realised
$8.42
Win rate
75%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
500 shares @ 76.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$462.50
$82.50
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
600 shares @ 66.0¢·now 68.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$411.00
$15.00
- YES
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
550 shares @ 64.1¢·now 64.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$354.47
$1.92
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
400 shares @ 59.0¢·now 46.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$186.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
200 shares @ 68.0¢·now 65.5¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$131.00
$-5.00
- NO
Steve Bannon exonerated by June 30?
250 shares @ 45.0¢·now 48.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$120.00
$7.50
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
450 shares @ 33.6¢·now 22.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$101.25
$-49.75
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
400 shares @ 38.5¢·now 20.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$82.00
$-72.00
- YES
Steve Bannon exonerated by June 30?
127 shares @ 51.0¢·now 52.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$65.85
$1.27
- SOMETHING
Nothing Ever Happens: May
56 shares @ 30.3¢·now 26.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$14.78
$-2.11
Recent activity
- TRADESELLNothing Ever Happens: May$5.002h ago
- TRADESELLNothing Ever Happens: May$38.292h ago
- TRADEBUYSteve Bannon exonerated by June 30?$3.382h ago
- TRADEBUYSteve Bannon exonerated by June 30?$61.203h ago
- TRADESELLNothing Ever Happens: May$17.003h ago
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 28-May 4?$0.914h ago
- TRADESELLNothing Ever Happens: May$175.004h ago
- TRADEBUYNothing Ever Happens: May$46.515h ago
- TRADEBUYNothing Ever Happens: May$0.895h ago
- TRADEBUYNothing Ever Happens: May$6.305h ago
- TRADEBUYNothing Ever Happens: May$10.857h ago
- TRADEBUYNothing Ever Happens: May$11.247h ago
- TRADEBUYNothing Ever Happens: May$162.508h ago
- TRADEBUYSteve Bannon exonerated by June 30?$2.778h ago
- TRADEBUYSteve Bannon exonerated by June 30?$11.078h ago
- TRADEBUYSteve Bannon exonerated by June 30?$98.658h ago
- TRADESELLMegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch?$112.009h ago
- REFERRAL_REWARD$3.7716h ago
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$999.001d ago
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$3.221d ago
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $253.48
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- 3d ago
- Last active
- 2h ago
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".