Intrepid-Eyebrow
0xc5be4c786f92700f1df70cec5ad850491016403b
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
30
Open notional
$1.59
Total PnL
$-127.30
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 30- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
6 shares @ 26.4¢·now 18.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.08
$-0.42
- NO
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?
93 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$0.51
$-2.74
- NO
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" score at least 65 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
348 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026$0.00
$-3.25
- NO
Will ICEMAN debut No.1 on Billboard 200?
108 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-3.25
- NO
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?
43 shares @ 7.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-3.25
- NO
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31?
32 shares @ 20.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-6.50
- NO
Will Bryan Johnson have sex again this month?
31 shares @ 31.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-9.65
- NO
Will Nate and Cassie marry in Euphoria: Season 3?
25 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-4.80
- NO
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by June 30, 2026?
22 shares @ 22.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-4.84
- NO
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30?
21 shares @ 24.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?$3.38Jul 17, 19:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYTamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?$3.36Jul 17, 19:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple release Homepod Mini Successor by June 30?$5.00Jul 17, 18:23 UTC
- REDEEMNocries signs for a pro CS2 organization by June 30?$5.00Jul 17, 18:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia enter Krasnopillya by May 31?$5.00Jul 17, 18:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026?$7.39Jul 17, 18:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 15 2026?$7.93Jul 17, 18:23 UTC
- REDEEMTrump's mail-in voting executive order blocked in April?$9.78Jul 17, 18:23 UTC
- REDEEMTrump ballroom project unblocked by May 31?$9.85Jul 17, 18:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$10.20Jul 17, 18:23 UTC
- REDEEMSCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day?$10.48Jul 17, 18:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Reform UK win at least 1600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?$11.61Jul 17, 18:23 UTC
- REDEEMPam Bondi testifies before congress by May 31?$12.04Jul 17, 18:23 UTC
- REDEEMCory Mills out as US Rep by May 31?$16.56Jul 17, 18:23 UTC
- REDEEMTamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?$17.34Jul 17, 18:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Charli XCX announce a new album by July 31?$3.38May 27, 17:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31?$3.35May 4, 20:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYRomania No-Confidence vote passes?$3.30May 4, 20:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Krasnopillya by May 31?$3.25May 4, 20:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple release Homepod Mini Successor by June 30?$3.30May 4, 17:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 63/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $4.12
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 19, 20:21 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 17, 19:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.