Happy-Go-Lucky-Hype
0xdc13f38a9d72fbcbc2e837a444c9b47c637cd8e2
Wallet digest
Activity score
93/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
11
Open notional
$14.86
Total PnL
$4.41
Realised
$0.20
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- YES
Will Trump say "Job" 10+ times during trophy presentation?
2 shares @ 45.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026$2.22
$1.22
- NO
Will Trump say "Too late" during events with Rutte?
2 shares @ 56.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 8, 2026$1.79
$0.79
- YES
Will Trump say "Where are you" during trophy presentation?
2 shares @ 57.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026$1.75
$0.75
- NO
Will Trump say "Eight Wars" or "Eighth War" during events with Rutte?
2 shares @ 59.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 8, 2026$1.69
$0.69
- YES
Will Trump say "Border" 7+ times during Memphis Roundtable?
1 shares @ 71.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026$1.41
$0.41
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
1 shares @ 67.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.35
$0.35
- NO
Will Trump say "Migrant Crime" this week? (March 22)
1 shares @ 78.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$1.28
$0.28
- NO
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
2 shares @ 64.0¢·now 78.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.23
$0.23
- NO
Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by March 31?
1 shares @ 90.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 7, 2026$1.11
$0.11
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
1 shares @ 45.0¢·now 70.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.02
$0.37
Recent activity
- REDEEMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?$1.22Jul 1, 06:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026?$2.19Jun 20, 01:14 UTC
- REDEEMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?$1.33Jun 1, 08:25 UTC
- REDEEMIran leadership change by May 31?$0.00Jun 1, 07:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?$0.00Jun 1, 06:07 UTC
- REDEEMUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?$1.28Jun 1, 06:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?$0.00May 27, 08:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%?$0.00May 17, 16:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?$1.79May 1, 07:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?$1.12May 1, 06:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?$1.92May 1, 06:54 UTC
- REDEEMIran leadership change by April 30?$0.94May 1, 06:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?$2.04Apr 30, 22:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?$2.04Apr 30, 22:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31?$0.24Apr 28, 13:58 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?$0.42Apr 28, 13:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31?$1.00Apr 27, 15:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?$1.11Apr 27, 06:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?$1.00Apr 26, 15:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026?$1.00Apr 26, 02:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $0.60
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 18, 04:38 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 1, 06:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.