Official-Tofu
0xe479b4db71cd50db6cb0db4bf7f473cf415408d4
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
21
Open notional
$74.63
Total PnL
$-54.65
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- NO
Iran leadership change by December 31?
45 shares @ 44.0¢·now 84.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$38.41
$18.41
- NO
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
13 shares @ 38.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$12.92
$7.92
- YES
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
26 shares @ 19.3¢·now 34.3¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$8.87
$3.87
- YES
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
34 shares @ 14.7¢·now 18.8¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$6.38
$1.38
- NO
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?
11 shares @ 45.0¢·now 41.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.56
$-0.44
- NO
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?
10 shares @ 40.0¢·now 35.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.50
$-0.50
- NO
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?
30 shares @ 14.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-4.30
- YES
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the April Meeting?
27 shares @ 10.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 24, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
21 shares @ 48.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?
17 shares @ 58.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 2, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 1, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 30, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 29, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 28, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$5.12Jun 23, 20:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$5.13Jun 23, 20:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$5.09Jun 7, 20:47 UTC
- REDEEMMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?$14.08Jun 7, 20:43 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$20.83Jun 7, 20:43 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET$0.00May 15, 19:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET$5.12May 15, 19:35 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET$5.00May 15, 19:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET$5.18May 15, 19:34 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET$0.00May 15, 19:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET$5.17May 15, 19:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET$4.40May 15, 19:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Latvia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?$1.06May 15, 10:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Armenia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?$6.85May 15, 10:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Norway advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?$7.14May 15, 10:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
29 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 60/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $5.81
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 7, 20:16 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 2, 00:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.