Spicy-Undertaker
0xec15908a72702ef0b229171b9c534a64c04e9b0c
Wallet digest
Activity score
40/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
59
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-2.3K
Realised
$-36.80
Win rate
25%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 59- NO
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
5245 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-46.72
- NO
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?
5000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- NO
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
5000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- NO
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?
5000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Ty Simpson be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
1786 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 25, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
1311 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
- YES
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?
1000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$0.00
$-10.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET
879 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 26, 2026$0.00
$-9.29
- YES
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-04-25?
697 shares @ 17.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 25, 2026$0.00
$-123.62
- SUNS
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Suns vs. Thunder
679 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026$0.00
$-12.74
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYKylian Mbappé: 1+ goals AND France vs. England: O/U 7.5 Total Corners AND France leading at halftime?$100.00Jul 18, 04:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYMiami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers AND Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance AND Washington Mystics vs. Golden State Valkyries AND Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs AND France vs. England: Team to Win$107.99Jul 18, 04:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYClavicular pregnancy in 2026?$25.14Apr 29, 22:55 UTC
- TRADESELLTesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?$13.22Apr 29, 22:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day?$11.92Apr 29, 22:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYNBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Suns vs. Thunder $13.13Apr 28, 01:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's public ticker be $X?$13.14Apr 28, 01:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Levante UD end in a draw?$10.95Apr 27, 20:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET$20.00Apr 27, 20:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYThunder vs. Suns$31.00Apr 27, 20:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYPistons vs. Magic$100.00Apr 27, 20:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX’s IPO valuation be at least 2.50T?$20.00Apr 27, 20:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's public ticker be $X?$10.00Apr 27, 20:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?$10.00Apr 27, 20:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day?$20.00Apr 27, 20:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYTesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?$20.00Apr 27, 20:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Pistons (-3.5)$38.44Apr 27, 20:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?$11.07Apr 27, 20:30 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?$10.00Apr 27, 20:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?$17.37Apr 27, 20:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $38.97
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 26, 20:30 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 18, 04:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.