Iran closes its airspace by June 30?UMA DISPUTED
High
Orrery — the verification layer for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
2 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue 1Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?
Resolves in 71h — verify the source
Verify
2Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Expired — settlement verification still pending upstream
Verify
3Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial Election?
Expired — settlement verification still pending upstream
Verify
4Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees
Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
Verify
5Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox
Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
Verify
HIGH-EVIDENCE OBSERVATIONS
All signals No high-evidence observations
Signals are quiet in this snapshot. The feed will fill when movement, flow, or divergence clears the evidence threshold.
Open signalsRESOLUTION RISK
Open watch MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?UMA DISPUTED
High
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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta BravesPAST EVENT
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Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati RedsPAST EVENT
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Cleveland Guardians vs. New York YankeesPAST EVENT
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Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red SoxPAST EVENT
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Knicks vs. SpursPAST EVENT
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Spread: Spurs (-4.5)PAST EVENT
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Spread: Spurs (-3.5)PAST EVENT
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Spread: Spurs (-5.5)PAST EVENT
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Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5PAST EVENT
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Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5PAST EVENT
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue Opportunity queue is empty
No market currently has enough evidence plus liquidity to enter the ranked queue.
Open opportunitiesScore = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFJune 4, 2026
Read full brief - Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? probability down 7.8pp on $0.4M of 24h volume.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? resolves in 71h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (0)
- No high-evidence observations today
IGNORE (2)
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