Set 1 Winner: Kjaer vs Shapovalov
Probability
100¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+58.0pp
24h Vol
$1.4K
Liquidity
$12.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 1
Up 58pp over 24h
Now 100¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 157h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $12.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
- 4
UMA status: proposed
An open UMA dispute or pending oracle vote can move price independently of underlying odds. Wait for settlement before treating the line as the market view.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 157.3h
- 19:43SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 157h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+58.0pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
14- 100¢+61.5pp
Madrid Open: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Denis Shapovalov
Sports · Vol $151.3K
- 0¢-40.0pp
Set Handicap: Shapovalov (-1.5) vs Kjaer (+1.5)
Other · Vol $1.1K
- 0¢-57.0pp
Kjaer vs. Shapovalov: Match O/U 21.5
Other · Vol $82.30
- 0¢-39.0pp
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs. Denis Shapovalov: Total Sets O/U 2.5
Other · Vol $450.69
- 0¢-47.9pp
Kjaer vs. Shapovalov: Match O/U 22.5
Other · Vol $1.6K
- 0¢-41.9pp
Kjaer vs. Shapovalov: Match O/U 23.5
Other · Vol $71.14
- 0¢-79.0pp
Kjaer vs. Shapovalov: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
Other · Vol $52.32
- 0¢-43.0pp
Kjaer vs. Shapovalov: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5
Other · Vol $272.08
- 100¢+32.5pp
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25?
Sports · Vol $4.3M
- 100¢+40.5pp
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25?
Sports · Vol $3.9M
- 0¢-52.4pp
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Sunrisers Hyderabad
Sports · Vol $1.6M
- 78¢0.0pp
Thunder vs. Suns
Sports · Vol $1.6M
- 100¢+41.4pp
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25?
Sports · Vol $1.5M
- 1¢0.0pp
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $1.5M
Market Description
This market refers to the tennis match between Nicolai Budkov Kjaer and Denis Shapovalov in the Madrid Open, originally scheduled for April 25, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to “Kjaer” if Nicolai Budkov Kjaer wins the first set. It will resolve to “Shapovalov” if Denis Shapovalov wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP match statistics.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- May 2, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- that completed setAmbiguous wordingatptour.com
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.