SportsExpires May 2, 2026

Kjaer vs. Shapovalov: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5

Probability

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-79.0pp

24h Vol

$52.32

Liquidity

$5.8K

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 24, 2026, 00:00Apr 25, 2026, 19:21
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  1. 1

    Down 79pp over 24h

    Now 0¢; flat in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 158h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Thin liquidity

    Only $5.8k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

  4. 4

    UMA status: proposed

    An open UMA dispute or pending oracle vote can move price independently of underlying odds. Wait for settlement before treating the line as the market view.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 157.6h

    LOW
  • 19:21Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 158h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

-79.0pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market refers to the tennis match between Nicolai Budkov Kjaer and Denis Shapovalov in the Madrid Open, originally scheduled for April 25, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in the first set equals or exceeds 9. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any first-set tiebreak counts as one (1) game toward the total. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or delayed beyond 7 days without commencement, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
May 2, 2026
UMA status
proposed
Resolution source
official ATP resultOfficial sports result
atptour.com
Market type
Binary
  • UMA status: proposed
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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