Kjaer vs. Shapovalov: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
Probability
0¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-79.0pp
24h Vol
$52.32
Liquidity
$5.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 1
Down 79pp over 24h
Now 0¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 158h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $5.8k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
- 4
UMA status: proposed
An open UMA dispute or pending oracle vote can move price independently of underlying odds. Wait for settlement before treating the line as the market view.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 157.6h
- 19:21SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 158h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-79.0pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market refers to the tennis match between Nicolai Budkov Kjaer and Denis Shapovalov in the Madrid Open, originally scheduled for April 25, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in the first set equals or exceeds 9. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any first-set tiebreak counts as one (1) game toward the total. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins, or delayed beyond 7 days without commencement, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- May 2, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- official ATP resultOfficial sports resultatptour.com
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.