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OtherExpires Apr 26, 2026

Game Handicap: AE (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)

Probability

46¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+8.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$156.18

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 20, 2026, 09:00Apr 25, 2026, 13:19
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  1. 1

    Up 8pp over 24h

    Now 46¢; flat in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 24h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 75.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

  4. 4

    Expiry in 24h

    Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 24 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 13:15Resolve

    Market resolves in 23.9h

    HIGH
  • 13:19Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 24h with open resolution ambiguity.

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability up 5.5pp

    to 46¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability down -12.0pp

    to 35¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability down -13.0pp

    to 34¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability down -6.5pp

    to 41¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability down -20.0pp

    to 33¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability down -13.0pp

    to 33¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability down -10.5pp

    to 36¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability down -10.5pp

    to 36¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability down -10.5pp

    to 36¢

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability down -6.0pp

    to 40¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -9.5pp

    to 37¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -9.0pp

    to 37¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -8.5pp

    to 37¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.5pp

    to 50¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.0pp

    to 48¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 7.0pp

    to 48¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.0pp

    to 47¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -8.5pp

    to 42¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -8.5pp

    to 42¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.5pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.5pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.5pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.5pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.5pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.5pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.0pp

    to 47¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.0pp

    to 47¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.0pp

    to 47¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market refers to the Mobile Legends Bang Bang match between Alter Ego and Natus Vincere in the MPL Indonesia Regular Season, initially scheduled for April 26 at 3:15AM ET. This market will resolve to "Alter Ego" if Alter Ego wins 2 or more games than Natus Vincere in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Natus Vincere". Games won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching game being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://liquipedia.net/mobilelegends/Main_Page. However, if https://liquipedia.net/mobilelegends/Main_Page has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Apr 26, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
https://liquipedia.net/mobilelegends/Main_PageNews consensus
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires Apr 26, 2026 — dispute window active.
  • Wide spread (75.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).

Top Holders

No holder data from the Data API.