Will the match end in a draw?
Probability
0¢
1h
-0.9pp
24h
-6.3pp
24h Vol
$515.16
Liquidity
$2.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
-7.2pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Down 6pp over 24h
Now 0¢; -0.9pp in the last hour.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $2.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability recovers above 5¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 167.8h
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.3pp
to 0¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.3pp
to 1¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.3pp
to 1¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.3pp
to 1¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 3¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 3¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 3¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 2¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 2¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 2¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 2¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
In the upcoming game, scheduled for April 25 2026 If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Yes". This market refers only to the outcome when the ball becomes dead after 80 minutes of regular play.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 2, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://www.lnr.fr/top-14
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).