Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man?
Probability
76¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$5.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
+7.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5669h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $5.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5668.6h
- 19:26SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 5669h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 76¢.
Biggest hourly move: +10.0pp at 2d ago (to 76¢).
Show all 4 hour-by-hour ticks
- 2d ago · +3.0pp → 76¢
- 2d ago · +4.0pp → 76¢
- 2d ago · +5.5pp → 76¢
- 2d ago · +10.0pp → 76¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
Avengers: Doomsday is a Marvel film scheduled to release on December, 18, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actor playing the listed character appears in Avengers: Doomsday. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve upon announcement of casting, regardless of if the film is delayed, cancelled, or otherwise fails to be released. If no casting is announced, this market will resolve upon footage of the domestic theatrical cut of the film. If multiple people are cast for the same role, the listed individual being among the cast list for the relevant character will be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. If no casting is announced and Avengers: Doomsday is definitively cancelled or fails to be released by June 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on official announcements from Marvel or Warner Bros., the domestic theatrical cut of Avengers: Doomsday, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 18, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.