U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "United Kingdom" before 2027?
Probability
21¢
1h
+1.5pp
24h
+3.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$18.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 4pp over 24h
Now 21¢; +1.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5979h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 10.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5979.0h
- 20:59SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 5979h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+1.0pp over the last 24h, now 19¢.
Biggest hourly move: +4.0pp at 3d ago (to 22¢).
Show all 13 hour-by-hour ticks
- 11:00 · -3.5pp → 17¢
- 09:00 · -3.5pp → 18¢
- 07:00 · -3.0pp → 18¢
- 03:00 · -3.5pp → 18¢
- 02:00 · -3.0pp → 18¢
- 01:00 · -3.5pp → 18¢
- 22:00 · -4.0pp → 17¢
- 1d ago · -3.5pp → 18¢
- 1d ago · -3.0pp → 17¢
- 1d ago · -3.5pp → 17¢
- 2d ago · +3.5pp → 22¢
- 2d ago · +3.5pp → 21¢
- 3d ago · +4.0pp → 22¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
14- 11¢0.0pp
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union" before 2027?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 25¢+0.5pp
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?
Other · Vol $35.90
- 27¢0.0pp
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 19¢+0.5pp
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Brazil" before 2027?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 18¢+1.0pp
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Japan" before 2027?
Other · Vol $4.76
- 16¢0.0pp
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027?
Other · Vol $34.12
- 18¢0.0pp
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 14¢+1.0pp
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Vietnam" before 2027?
Other · Vol $16.48
- 0¢-0.1pp
Trump out as President by April 30?
Politics · Vol $662.9K
- 5¢+0.1pp
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $540.2K
- 3¢+0.9pp
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Politics · Vol $528.8K
- 1¢0.0pp
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $339.7K
- 1¢0.0pp
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $333.2K
- 1¢+0.1pp
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $316.8K
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (10.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.