Will another Canadian MP cross the floor by May 15, 2026?
Probability
27¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-5.5pp
24h Vol
$11.26
Liquidity
$108.12
Probability (last 7 days)
-7.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 6pp over 24h
Now 27¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1562h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 42.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1562.1h
- 21:52SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 1562h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-5.0pp over the last 24h, now 28¢.
Biggest hourly move: -19.5pp at 20:00 (to 27¢).
Show top 8 of 46 hourly moves
- 21:00 · -17.5pp → 28¢
- 20:00 · -19.5pp → 27¢
- 10:00 · -17.0pp → 29¢
- 22:00 · -13.5pp → 33¢
- 1d ago · -13.5pp → 33¢
- 2d ago · -13.5pp → 33¢
- 2d ago · -13.5pp → 33¢
- 2d ago · -13.5pp → 33¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (42.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.