Will Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth rate (YoY) be at least 2.7%?
Probability
3¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-12.6pp
24h Vol
$24.19
Liquidity
$1.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
-4.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 13pp over 24h
Now 3¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 800h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $1.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 800.1h
- 15:53SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 800h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.2pp
to 3¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.6pp
to 15¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.2pp
to 18¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 9¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.3pp
to 9¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.8pp
to 9¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.3pp
to 10¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.8pp
to 12¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.9pp
to 10¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.6pp
to 13¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.9pp
to 13¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.4pp
to 16¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.4pp
to 16¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.2pp
to 16¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.2pp
to 16¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.4pp
to 16¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.3pp
to 18¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.3pp
to 8¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.4pp
to 18¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.4pp
to 9¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.3pp
to 13¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.1pp
to 15¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.6pp
to 2¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 2¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.8pp
to 3¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026. The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 29, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %)Ambiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
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