Will Chris Stigall be the Republican nominee for MO-06?
Probability
61¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+8.5pp
24h Vol
$373.99
Liquidity
$32.3K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Up 9pp over 24h
Now 61¢; flat in the last hour.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability drops back below 56¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 2367.0h
Price movement
+8.5pp over the last 24h, now 61¢.
Biggest hourly move: +41.5pp at 06:00 (to 61¢).
Show top 8 of 26 hourly moves
- 08:00 · +30.5pp → 61¢
- 07:00 · +41.5pp → 61¢
- 06:00 · +41.5pp → 61¢
- 04:00 · +23.5pp → 61¢
- 01:00 · +23.0pp → 61¢
- 00:00 · +28.5pp → 61¢
- 21:00 · +23.5pp → 61¢
- 18:00 · +31.5pp → 60¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MO-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 4, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MO-06 congressional district seat in thLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.