Will Clavicular go clubbing 3-4 times in March?
Probability
46¢
1h
-0.8pp
24h
-1.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$60.53
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.1pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 1
Down 1pp over 24h
Now 46¢; -0.8pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 3
Wide spread — 91.8¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 4
Past expiry — awaiting resolution
Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 16:03SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 16:03PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.3pp
to 46¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.1pp
to 47¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.3pp
to 46¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.3pp
to 46¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.1pp
to 47¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 47¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.9pp
to 46¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.6pp
to 47¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 46¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.3pp
to 46¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.1pp
to 47¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.1pp
to 47¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.3pp
to 46¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.4pp
to 46¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.2pp
to 47¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.4pp
to 47¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 46¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.3pp
to 47¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.3pp
to 47¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 46¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.2pp
to 47¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.6pp
to 46¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.4pp
to 47¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.3pp
to 47¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.2pp
to 47¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.8pp
to 47¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 47¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.6pp
to 46¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.2pp
to 46¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to the number of times Clavicular goes clubbing during the month of March 2026. "Times" refers to discrete instances (separate nights) where Clavicular is physically present inside a nightclub, club, or similar nightlife venue (with music, dancing, and/or bottle service) for any duration of time. Club appearances prior to this market being put up do not count. Streaming from inside the club, posting videos or photos from the club, or being visibly filmed while clubbing will all count as evidence. Simply walking past a club, going to a bar that is not a nightclub, attending private parties, or off-stream club visits with no public evidence will not qualify. Each separate night he enters a club counts as one instance, even if he visits multiple clubs in the same night. The primary resolution source for this market will be Kick.com (e.g., https://www.kick.com/clavicular), credible video clips, photos, or stories posted by Clavicular himself, or a consensus of credible reporting or widely circulated video evidence showing him inside a club during March 2026.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Mar 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (91.8¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).