Will Diego Pavia be drafted in the 4th round of the 2026 pro football draft?
Probability
10¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-37.5pp
24h Vol
$39.99
Liquidity
$950.94
Probability (last 7 days)
-35.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 5 factors- 1
Down 38pp over 24h
Now 10¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 2h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 19.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 4
Expiry in 2h
Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.
- 5
UMA status: proposed
An open UMA dispute or pending oracle vote can move price independently of underlying odds. Wait for settlement before treating the line as the market view.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 2 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 00:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 1.7h
- 22:15SignalHIGH
Resolution risk
Expires in 2h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-37.5pp over the last 24h, now 10¢.
Biggest hourly move: -39.0pp at 21:00 (to 10¢).
Show 2 hourly moves
- 22:00 · -38.5pp → 10¢
- 21:00 · -39.0pp → 10¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the round in which Diego Pavia is selected in the 2026 NFL draft. If Diego Pavia is not selected in the 2026 NFL Draft, this market will resolve to "Not Drafted". If the 2026 NFL Draft is canceled, not completed, or Diego Pavia is not drafted by May 9, 2026, this market will resolve to "Not Drafted". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 26, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- UMA status: proposed
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires Apr 26, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (19.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.