Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30?
Probability
24¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-14.5pp
24h Vol
$89.22
Liquidity
$13.4K
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Down 14pp over 24h
Now 24¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $13.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability recovers above 29¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1424.8h
Price movement
-14.5pp over the last 24h, now 24¢.
Biggest hourly move: -27.0pp at 14:00 (to 24¢).
Show 3 hourly moves
- 15:00 · -27.0pp → 24¢
- 14:00 · -27.0pp → 24¢
- 12:00 · -19.5pp → 32¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 1) The Yashar party ("Yashar! With Eisenkot") or the Together Party announce that the Yashar party will merge with, or contest the 2026 Israeli legislative election on a joint candidate list with, the Together party. 2) Gadi Eisenkot or the Together party announce that Gadi Eisenkot will run on the Together party’s candidate list for the 2026 Israeli legislative election. Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, offers, invitations, or other non-definitive statements will not count. If the Together party undergoes a merger, name change, or other restructuring, the resulting party or alliance will be considered the Together party for purposes of this market, provided both Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid are members of the resulting party or alliance. If the Yashar party undergoes a merger, name change, or other restructuring, the resulting party, alliance, or candidate list will be considered the Yashar party for purposes of this market, provided Gadi Eisenkot is a member of the resulting party, alliance, or candidate list. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Yashar party, the Together party, Gadi Eisenkot, Naftali Bennett, and Yair Lapid; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Alerts
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