Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.3% and 1.6%?
Probability
34¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
+1.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$56.02
Probability (last 7 days)
+2.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 2pp over 24h
Now 34¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 106h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 41.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 106.0h
- 13:57SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 106h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 33¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 48¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 51¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 41¢
- 04:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.5pp
to 52¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 32¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.5pp
to 51¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 31¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 35¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 43¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 33¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 31¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 33¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 39¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 32¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.5pp
to 49¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 29¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 30¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 31¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 42¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.0pp
to 34¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.5pp
to 31¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 34¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 38¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 38¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 38¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 38¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 34¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the Eurozone (Euro Area 21) Q1 2026 GDP growth rate over the same quarter of the previous year (% change), based on seasonally adjusted data, in the Eurostat Preliminary Flash Estimate of GDP release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. This market’s resolution source reports GDP growth rates to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (41.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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