PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Aug 10, 2028

Will Gina Raimondo be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?

Probability

13¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-1.6pp

24h Vol

$90.91

Liquidity

$22.7K

Probability (last 7 days)

+7.1pp 7d
Apr 22, 2026, 05:00Apr 29, 2026, 04:16
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 2pp over 24h

    Now 13¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 24.2¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 20011.7h

    LOW
  • 04:16Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

-1.6pp over the last 24h, now 13¢.

Biggest hourly move: +45.8pp at 13:00 (to 49¢).

Show top 8 of 19 hourly moves
  • 01:00 · +15.1pp → 18¢
  • 22:00 · +17.6pp → 21¢
  • 19:00 · +16.8pp → 20¢
  • 18:00 · +25.8pp → 29¢
  • 17:00 · +30.3pp → 34¢
  • 15:00 · +36.5pp → 40¢
  • 14:00 · +44.9pp → 48¢
  • 13:00 · +45.8pp → 49¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventDemocratic VP Nominee 2028
Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 Presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Aug 10, 2028
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President of the United States in the
Link
democrats.org
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (24.2¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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Top Holders

12 wallets
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