Will Jim Priest be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma?
Probability
29¢
1h
-3.0pp
24h
+3.0pp
24h Vol
$80.00
Liquidity
$14.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
+7.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 3pp over 24h
Now 29¢; -3.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1230h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 10.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1230.3h
- 17:44SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 1230h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+2.5pp over the last 24h, now 28¢.
Biggest hourly move: +12.0pp at 2d ago (to 35¢).
Show all 35 hour-by-hour ticks
- 17:00 · +6.5pp → 32¢
- 16:00 · +5.0pp → 30¢
- 07:00 · -9.5pp → 27¢
- 04:00 · -3.0pp → 25¢
- 22:00 · +4.5pp → 31¢
- 1d ago · -4.0pp → 24¢
- 1d ago · -7.5pp → 25¢
- 1d ago · -6.0pp → 25¢
- 2d ago · +3.5pp → 27¢
- 2d ago · +3.5pp → 27¢
- 2d ago · -5.5pp → 25¢
- 2d ago · -3.0pp → 25¢
- 2d ago · +4.0pp → 26¢
- 2d ago · +3.0pp → 25¢
- 2d ago · +5.5pp → 27¢
- 2d ago · +12.0pp → 35¢
- 3d ago · +3.0pp → 25¢
- 3d ago · +3.0pp → 25¢
- 3d ago · +3.5pp → 25¢
- 3d ago · +4.5pp → 27¢
- 3d ago · +3.0pp → 26¢
- 3d ago · +10.0pp → 36¢
- 3d ago · +3.0pp → 28¢
- 3d ago · +3.5pp → 25¢
- 3d ago · +5.0pp → 27¢
- 3d ago · +5.5pp → 27¢
- 3d ago · +6.0pp → 28¢
- 3d ago · -7.0pp → 26¢
- 3d ago · -5.5pp → 27¢
- 4d ago · -6.5pp → 28¢
- 4d ago · -5.0pp → 28¢
- 4d ago · -4.5pp → 28¢
- 4d ago · +6.0pp → 33¢
- 4d ago · -10.5pp → 23¢
- 4d ago · -10.5pp → 23¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Oklahoma. If no 2026 Oklahoma Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oklahoma Democratic Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 16, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- natoOfficial government sourceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (10.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.