Will John Coupar win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?
Probability
7¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.1pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$10.7K
Probability (last 7 days)
+1.2pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 4181h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $10.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 4181.3h
- 18:41SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 4181h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-0.2pp over the last 24h, now 7¢.
Biggest hourly move: -5.6pp at 4d ago (to 7¢).
Show all 22 hour-by-hour ticks
- 13:00 · -3.6pp → 7¢
- 12:00 · -3.1pp → 7¢
- 05:00 · -3.8pp → 6¢
- 1d ago · -3.6pp → 7¢
- 1d ago · -3.1pp → 7¢
- 1d ago · -3.7pp → 6¢
- 1d ago · -3.1pp → 7¢
- 1d ago · -3.6pp → 6¢
- 2d ago · -3.1pp → 7¢
- 2d ago · -3.6pp → 7¢
- 2d ago · -3.4pp → 7¢
- 3d ago · -4.4pp → 5¢
- 3d ago · -3.4pp → 6¢
- 3d ago · +3.7pp → 10¢
- 3d ago · -3.1pp → 7¢
- 3d ago · -4.2pp → 7¢
- 3d ago · -4.2pp → 7¢
- 3d ago · -5.2pp → 7¢
- 3d ago · -5.3pp → 7¢
- 4d ago · -5.6pp → 7¢
- 4d ago · -3.6pp → 9¢
- 4d ago · +4.1pp → 10¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
The 2026 Vancouver mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 17, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Vancouver as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Vancouver.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Oct 17, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.