Will Marco Rubio be confirmed to be the sender of the “I beat Bush” email to Epstein in 2026?
Probability
5¢
1h
-0.9pp
24h
+1.7pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$5.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
+1.3pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 2pp over 24h
Now 5¢; -0.9pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5982h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 7.9¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5982.1h
- 17:54SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 5982h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-0.6pp over the last 24h, now 5¢.
Biggest hourly move: +12.5pp at 2d ago (to 18¢).
Show all 24 hour-by-hour ticks
- 06:00 · +5.0pp → 11¢
- 1d ago · -3.9pp → 2¢
- 1d ago · +3.4pp → 10¢
- 2d ago · +4.1pp → 11¢
- 2d ago · +3.8pp → 10¢
- 2d ago · +12.4pp → 18¢
- 2d ago · +8.4pp → 14¢
- 2d ago · +10.7pp → 12¢
- 2d ago · +6.9pp → 12¢
- 2d ago · +11.3pp → 17¢
- 2d ago · +12.5pp → 18¢
- 2d ago · -9.2pp → 4¢
- 2d ago · -9.0pp → 5¢
- 2d ago · -5.2pp → 4¢
- 2d ago · -6.0pp → 6¢
- 3d ago · -3.4pp → 6¢
- 3d ago · -6.4pp → 6¢
- 3d ago · -7.0pp → 6¢
- 3d ago · -6.8pp → 2¢
- 3d ago · -3.8pp → 4¢
- 3d ago · -7.1pp → 4¢
- 3d ago · -3.9pp → 6¢
- 3d ago · +4.1pp → 6¢
- 3d ago · +3.6pp → 6¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
On February 12, 2026, Rep. Ro Khanna posted a document on X that displays an email with the subject line "I beat Bush" addressed to Jeffrey Epstein, calling for the sender’s identity to be unredacted. You can read more about that here: https://x.com/reprokhanna/status/2022046192478327156 This market will resolve to the individual whose email account is confirmed to have sent the specified message by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no individual's email account is confirmed to have sent the message by the end date, this market will resolve to "Not revealed in 2026". The identity of the account must be revealed unambiguously, for example, through a public unredaction of the document in question, which clearly and definitively reveals the sender’s address. Official statements regarding the sender’s identity, or any confirmation that does not involve public unredaction of the specified document, including access limited to House members, congressional committees, or other restricted parties, will qualify only if there is a broad consensus as to their truthfulness. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · mediumx.com
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (7.9¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
Top Holders
11 wallets- 0xa5ef…29661.0K