Will Pakistan recognize Israel by June 30?
Probability
6¢
1h
+0.3pp
24h
-2.2pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$1.3K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.4pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Down 2pp over 24h
Now 6¢; +0.3pp in the last hour.
- 2
Wide spread — 6.8¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
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Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
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AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 6¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- —
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (6.8¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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