Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.0% before 2027?
Probability
14¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-3.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$3.2K
Probability (last 7 days)
-7.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 3pp over 24h
Now 14¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5985h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 9.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5985.2h
- 14:45SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5985h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 17¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 17¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 17¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 17¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 17¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 17¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 17¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 17¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 17¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 17¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 17¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 17¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 17¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 17¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 17¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 17¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 17¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 17¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 17¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 17¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 17¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 17¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 17¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 17¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 18¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 18¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (9.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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