Will the median home value in Chicago be between $336,000 and $338,000 on April 30?
Probability
13¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$83.39
Probability (last 7 days)
-1.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 107h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 18.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 107.4h
- 12:36SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 107h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 12¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 12¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in Chicago on April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for Chicago, IL (Parcl_ID: 2899845). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1500 square feet, which is the median home size in Chicago. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 30, 2026. If no data for April 30 is released by May 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/30)
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the median home value for all property types in Chicago on April 30, 2026Ambiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (18.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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