Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 28?
Probability
0¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.4pp
24h Vol
$229.26
Liquidity
$308.13
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 58h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $308 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
- 3
Expiry in 58h
Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 58 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 58.4h
- 13:38SignalMEDIUM
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 58h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.3pp
to 0¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.2pp
to 1¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -32.1pp
to 1¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -32.1pp
to 1¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -32.1pp
to 1¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -32.1pp
to 1¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -31.6pp
to 1¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -39.5pp
to 1¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -39.9pp
to 1¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #2 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 28, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires Apr 28, 2026 — dispute window active.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).