PoliticsExpires Dec 31, 2026

Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden before 2027?

Probability

1h

+0.1pp

24h

-0.1pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$15.6K

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.3pp 7d
Apr 19, 2026, 00:00Apr 25, 2026, 23:13
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 1

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 5977h with open resolution ambiguity.

  • 2

    Wide spread — 6.4¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 5976.8h

    LOW
  • 23:13Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 5977h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

-1.0pp over the last 24h, now 4¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
US government
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (6.4¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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