Will Trump say "Nobel" or "Peace Prize" during WHCA Dinner events?

1. 1

   Up 12pp over 24h

   Now 39¢; flat in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

3. 3

   Thin liquidity

   Only $613 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

4. 4

   Past expiry — awaiting resolution

   Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.

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Donald Trump is scheduled to participate in the White House Correspondents' Association Dinner events on April 25, 2026. (see: https://whca.press/news/annual-dinner/) This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the WHCA Dinner events scheduled for April 25, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If clips of old interviews or prerecorded videos are aired where Trump is speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution. Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.