UnclassifiedExpires May 5, 2026

Polona Hercog vs. Xinyu Gao: Total Sets O/U 2.5

Probability

51¢

1h

+0.5pp

24h

-13.0pp

24h Vol

$171.90

Liquidity

$558.55

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 26, 2026, 18:00Apr 28, 2026, 13:49
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 13pp over 24h

    Now 51¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 157h with open resolution ambiguity.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 98.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

  • 04
    UMA status

    UMA status: proposed

    An open UMA dispute or pending oracle vote can move price independently of underlying odds. Wait for settlement before treating the line as the market view.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 157.2h

    LOW
  • 13:49Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 157h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

-13.0pp over the last 24h, now 51¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market refers to the tennis match between Polona Hercog and Xinyu Gao in the Huzhou, originally scheduled for April 27, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of sets completed equals or exceeds 3. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." A super tie breaker is considered as one (1) set for total set markets. If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official WTA Challenger statistics.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
May 5, 2026
UMA status
proposed
Resolution source
Market type
Binary
  • UMA status: proposed
  • Wide spread (98.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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