Polona Hercog vs. Xinyu Gao: Total Sets O/U 2.5
Probability
51¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
-13.0pp
24h Vol
$171.90
Liquidity
$558.55
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 01Price move
Down 13pp over 24h
Now 51¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 157h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 98.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 04UMA status
UMA status: proposed
An open UMA dispute or pending oracle vote can move price independently of underlying odds. Wait for settlement before treating the line as the market view.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 157.2h
- 13:49SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 157h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-13.0pp over the last 24h, now 51¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market refers to the tennis match between Polona Hercog and Xinyu Gao in the Huzhou, originally scheduled for April 27, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of sets completed equals or exceeds 3. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." A super tie breaker is considered as one (1) set for total set markets. If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official WTA Challenger statistics.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- May 5, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Primary
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Wide spread (98.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.