0x31cfd58816e65e383a670a374de7f48d8a6d95e0
0x31cfd58816e65e383a670a374de7f48d8a6d95e0
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
16
Open notional
$172.67
Total PnL
$38.29
Realised
$23.65
Win rate
80%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- NO
Will Chloé Zhao win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?
60 shares @ 99.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$60.00
$0.42
- NO
Will Microsoft acquire TikTok?
35 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$35.00
$17.50
- NO
Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?
17 shares @ 79.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.72
$2.29
- YES
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?
11 shares @ 79.5¢·now 89.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.89
$1.14
- NO
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
9 shares @ 84.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.14
$0.58
- NO
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?
8 shares @ 96.6¢·now 96.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.68
$-0.04
- NO
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?
8 shares @ 94.5¢·now 95.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.63
$0.07
- NO
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?
8 shares @ 81.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.48
$1.00
- NO
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
8 shares @ 90.0¢·now 92.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.36
$0.16
- NO
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
5 shares @ 89.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.00
$0.51
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?$5.28Jul 12, 01:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYMilei out as President of Argentina before 2027?$7.58Jul 6, 23:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?$6.09Jul 4, 20:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$4.42Jul 2, 10:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYUkraine joins NATO before 2027?$7.73Jun 28, 08:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?$5.71Jun 26, 00:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYAziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?$4.29Jun 22, 21:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$1.08Jun 22, 01:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?$7.56Jun 16, 22:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?$1.60Jun 13, 10:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?$5.14Jun 7, 03:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027?$10.78Jun 1, 07:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027?$1.61Jun 1, 07:43 UTC
- TRADESELLMilei out as President of Argentina before 2027?$5.54Jun 1, 07:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?$6.47Jun 1, 07:42 UTC
- TRADESELLAziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?$2.54Jun 1, 07:42 UTC
- TRADESELLAziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?$11.09Jun 1, 07:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?$4.14Jun 1, 07:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?$1.60Jun 1, 07:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYAziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?$4.79May 19, 10:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
80% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $5.09
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 1, 09:53 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 12, 01:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.