Will Khamenei post 25-29 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?
Probability
3¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
-21.6pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$73.96
Probability (last 7 days)
-22.1pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Down 22pp over 24h
Now 3¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $74 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability recovers above 8¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 74.1h
- 13:56PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -22.1pp
to 3¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.4pp
to 4¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.4pp
to 4¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -23.5pp
to 4¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -23.0pp
to 4¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 25¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 23¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 23¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 28¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.5pp
to 28¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 26¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.5pp
to 28¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 26¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 24¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 29¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 28¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 28¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 24¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 28¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 37¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
14- 41¢+15.5pp
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?
Other · Vol $19.81
- 33¢+7.0pp
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 29¢+5.0pp
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 28¢+1.0pp
Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?
Other · Vol $5.71
- 4¢-20.5pp
Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 4¢-15.4pp
Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?
Other · Vol $15.00
- 3¢+1.8pp
Will Khamenei post 35-39 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?
Other · Vol $10.00
- 0¢-0.8pp
Will Khamenei post 40-44 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?
Other · Vol $10.00
- 61¢+1.0pp
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $2.6M
- 1¢-1.7pp
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Other · Vol $2.0M
- 100¢+59.0pp
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner
Other · Vol $1.1M
- 0¢-35.4pp
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
Other · Vol $1.0M
- 0¢-39.5pp
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $864.1K
- 60¢+2.0pp
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25?
Other · Vol $815.8K
Market Description
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between April 21, 12:00 PM ET and April 28, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 28, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://x.com/khamenei_irAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).