U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027?
Probability
15¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$125.12
Liquidity
$19.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Thin liquidity
Only $19.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
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Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5943.0h
Price movement
-0.5pp over the last 24h, now 15¢.
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
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